reviews / summaries
Getting Better by Being Wrong with Annie Duke @ The Knowledge ProjectProfessional poker player Annie Duke (@AnnieDuke) and I discuss how to disagree without being disagreeable, spotting biases that sabotage our success, how to find signals in noise, and reliable decision-making models for high stakes, high-pressure situations.
- Happiness Test by asking yourself:
“Will my happiness, a week from now, depend on this decision?” If not, decide quickly.
- Only‐Option Test:
“If this were my only option, would I happily take it?” If so, decide quickly
- Two‐Way Door Test:
“What is the cost of quitting?” If the cost of quitting is low, decide quickly.
The happiness test, the only‐option test, and the two‐way door test are three quick methods to help you be more decisive. But occasionally you’ll run into a decision:
- That could have a significant impact on your happiness.
- Where no one option you would be happy with.
- In which the quitting cost is high.
“Would I be shocked if the result was higher than my upper bound and lower than my lower bound?”
There will come a point when you need to stop researching and estimating and make a decision…but when? I like to follow Jeff Bezos advice: “Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had.”