Saturday, October 22, 2022

book: How to Decide by Annie Duke How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices eBook : Duke, Annie: Kindle Store Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts eBook : Duke, Annie: Kindle Store Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away eBook : Duke, Annie: Kindle Store

Annie Duke - Wikipedia

reviews / summaries

Getting Better by Being Wrong with Annie Duke @ The Knowledge Project

Professional poker player Annie Duke (@AnnieDuke) and I discuss how to disagree without being disagreeable, spotting biases that sabotage our success, how to find signals in noise, and reliable decision-making models for high stakes, high-pressure situations.

HOW TO DECIDE by Annie Duke | Core Message - YouTube

by ProductivityGame

  • Happiness Test by asking yourself:
    “Will my happiness, a week from now, depend on this decision?” If not, decide quickly.
  • Only‐Option Test:
    “If this were my only option, would I happily take it?” If so, decide quickly
  • Two‐Way Door Test:
    “What is the cost of quitting?” If the cost of quitting is low, decide quickly.

The happiness test, the only‐option test, and the two‐way door test are three quick methods to help you be more decisive. But occasionally you’ll run into a decision: 

  • That could have a significant impact on your happiness.
  • Where no one option you would be happy with.
  • In which the quitting cost is high.
If this is the case you need to go slow, collect information, and construct target estimates. Construct Decision Targets

The Shock Test.
“Would I be shocked if the result was higher than my upper bound and lower than my lower bound?”

There will come a point when you need to stop researching and estimating and make a decision…but when? I like to follow Jeff Bezos advice: “Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had.”

How to Decide | Summary of key ideas | Book by Annie Duke - Blinkist

Thinking in Bets | Annie Duke | Talks at Google - YouTube

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